2024 Real Estate Outlook and Predictions. 9 Takeaways!
In a recent revelation at the National Association of Realtors' fifth annual year-end Real Estate Forecast Summit: The Year Ahead, NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun painted a promising picture for the real estate landscape in 2024. According to Yun, the market is poised for growth, with a forecast of 4.71 million existing homes set to be sold.
Key Projections for 2024:
1. Austin, Texas Takes the Lead:
Yun identifies Austin, Texas, as the top real estate market to watch in 2024 and beyond. The city's dynamic economic landscape and thriving job market contribute to its anticipated prominence in the real estate arena.
2. Surge in Home Sales:
Yun predicts a 13.5% increase in home sales compared to 2023. This surge in activity is expected to be driven by various factors, including a buoyant job market and favorable economic conditions.
3. Median Home Price Growth:
The median home price is forecasted to reach $389,500, marking a 0.9% increase from the previous year. This moderate uptick reflects the continued strength of the housing market.
4. Regional Dynamics:
Metro markets in southern states are projected to outperform others, thanks to rapid job increases. Meanwhile, the Midwest is expected to experience gains due to its status as the most affordable region.
5. Rental Market Calmness:
Yun anticipates a further calming of rent prices in 2024, contributing to the stabilization of the consumer price index.
6. Foreclosure Rates Remain Low:
The Chief Economist expects foreclosure rates to stay historically low in 2024, comprising less than 1% of all mortgages.
7. Economic Outlook:
While projecting a U.S. GDP growth of 1.5%, Yun foresees the avoidance of a recession. Net new job additions are expected to slow to 1.7 million in 2024, reflecting a shift from the robust job market of previous years.
8. Mortgage Rate and Federal Reserve Expectations:
After surpassing 8% in late 2023, Yun anticipates the 30-year fixed mortgage rate to average 6.3%. He also predicts that the Federal Reserve will cut rates four times to address slowing economic activity and mitigate inflationary conditions.
9. Housing Starts:
The forecast includes 1.48 million housing starts in 2024, encompassing 1.04 million single-family and 440,000 multifamily units.
As the real estate landscape evolves, Lawrence Yun's projections offer valuable insights into the factors shaping the market in 2024. Whether you're a prospective homebuyer, seller, or investor, staying informed about these trends can empower you to make well-informed decisions in the dynamic world of real estate. Keep an eye on Austin, embrace the surge in home sales, and navigate the evolving market landscape with confidence. The future of real estate is indeed an exciting journey.